All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | |
Rick Weinheimer Classic |
Eagle Classic |
Conference Indiana |
New Haven Invitational |
Nike Valley Twilight |
Brown County Sectional |
Columbus North Regional |
Brown County Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | |
9/4 |
9/11 |
9/18 |
9/25 |
10/2 |
10/9 |
10/16 |
10/23 |
10/30 |
| Team Rating |
139 |
107 |
93 |
126 |
221 |
175 |
605 |
166 |
153 |
134 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | |
107 |
93 |
126 |
172 |
175 |
139 |
166 |
153 |
134 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating |
Rick Weinheimer Classic |
Eagle Classic |
Conference Indiana |
New Haven Invitational |
Nike Valley Twilight |
Brown County Sectional |
Columbus North Regional |
Brown County Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| 2 |
Reese Kilbarger-Stumpff |
12 |
15:16 |
15:24 |
15:08 |
15:50 |
15:53 |
15:32 |
|
15:43 |
15:40 |
15:10 |
| 15 |
Matt Newell |
12 |
15:55 |
15:51 |
15:41 |
15:47 |
|
16:24 |
|
16:18 |
16:02 |
15:50 |
| 43 |
Clayton Guthrie |
11 |
16:15 |
16:02 |
16:03 |
16:13 |
16:17 |
16:19 |
|
16:19 |
16:19 |
16:11 |
| 63 |
Evan Carr |
12 |
16:23 |
16:06 |
16:09 |
16:10 |
16:24 |
16:25 |
|
16:33 |
16:28 |
16:31 |
| 66 |
Mateo Mendez |
11 |
16:26 |
16:27 |
16:16 |
16:24 |
16:44 |
16:29 |
|
16:19 |
16:22 |
16:24 |
| 118 |
Will Russell |
11 |
16:41 |
16:34 |
16:38 |
16:34 |
16:47 |
16:44 |
|
16:27 |
16:54 |
16:38 |
| 120 |
Will Kiel |
12 |
16:42 |
16:30 |
16:26 |
17:07 |
17:26 |
16:49 |
|
16:55 |
16:51 |
16:35 |
| 165 |
Kellen Hottell |
11 |
16:55 |
16:51 |
16:43 |
16:54 |
16:55 |
16:43 |
17:22 |
|
|
|
| 232 |
Marco Avila |
10 |
17:07 |
17:05 |
17:09 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 349 |
Neal White |
9 |
17:28 |
17:38 |
17:28 |
|
17:22 |
17:15 |
17:38 |
|
|
|
| 407 |
Akot Tong |
10 |
17:35 |
17:45 |
|
17:09 |
17:55 |
17:34 |
17:31 |
|
|
|
| 414 |
Aidan Jeffares |
9 |
17:36 |
|
|
17:42 |
17:22 |
17:55 |
17:28 |
|
|
|
| 417 |
Jacob Strietelmeier |
11 |
17:37 |
17:35 |
17:19 |
|
|
17:49 |
|
|
|
|
| 448 |
Sam Hobbeheydar |
11 |
17:41 |
17:19 |
17:40 |
17:23 |
18:11 |
17:49 |
17:39 |
|
|
|
| 491 |
Adam Reckers |
10 |
17:45 |
|
17:31 |
17:32 |
|
17:52 |
17:59 |
|
|
|
| 661 |
Charlie Smith |
11 |
18:01 |
19:08 |
18:07 |
17:55 |
18:16 |
17:32 |
17:49 |
|
|
|
| 808 |
Damien Dixon |
10 |
18:16 |
18:10 |
18:11 |
18:28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 846 |
Will Littrell |
12 |
18:19 |
17:59 |
|
18:21 |
18:30 |
18:20 |
|
|
|
|
| 950 |
Draven Martinez |
9 |
18:28 |
18:11 |
18:11 |
18:28 |
19:03 |
18:31 |
|
|
|
|
| 954 |
Aidan McGill |
10 |
18:28 |
18:17 |
18:14 |
18:46 |
18:22 |
18:44 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,131 |
Ethan Lax |
12 |
18:43 |
|
18:58 |
18:50 |
18:22 |
18:45 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,215 |
Rylan Hottell |
10 |
18:48 |
18:39 |
18:44 |
18:47 |
19:06 |
18:44 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,229 |
Kaushal Padmanabhan |
12 |
18:49 |
18:49 |
18:36 |
18:30 |
19:19 |
18:53 |
|
|
|
|
|
Jonny Klaus |
9 |
19:05 |
|
19:30 |
18:55 |
19:09 |
18:57 |
|
|
|
|
|
Rogelio Reyes |
10 |
19:07 |
19:25 |
18:48 |
19:01 |
19:27 |
18:59 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carson Zhang |
11 |
19:26 |
19:44 |
19:21 |
19:28 |
19:39 |
19:00 |
|
|
|
|
|
Adler Larson |
11 |
19:33 |
19:42 |
19:38 |
19:47 |
19:40 |
18:54 |
|
|
|
|
|
Evan Bense |
9 |
20:00 |
19:39 |
21:03 |
20:14 |
20:04 |
19:30 |
|
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
| State Finals |
100% |
3.4 |
138 |
15.6 |
19.5 |
19.3 |
16.4 |
14.8 |
10.7 |
2.8 |
0.8 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Semi-State |
100% |
1.0 |
49 |
99.1 |
0.9 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Regionals |
100% |
1.0 |
16 |
100.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
1.0 |
16 |
100.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Reese Kilbarger-Stumpff |
100% |
2.1 |
20.7 |
26.9 |
23.0 |
14.8 |
7.4 |
3.4 |
1.5 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Matt Newell |
100% |
17.4 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.4 |
1.0 |
1.9 |
2.4 |
3.4 |
3.8 |
4.2 |
4.6 |
4.7 |
4.3 |
4.7 |
4.6 |
4.5 |
4.1 |
4.0 |
3.7 |
3.4 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
2.7 |
2.4 |
|
99.9% |
| Clayton Guthrie |
100% |
45.5 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
1.4 |
|
91.2% |
| Evan Carr |
100% |
64.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
|
73.4% |
| Mateo Mendez |
100% |
71.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
|
65.2% |
| Will Russell |
100% |
102.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
20.6% |
| Will Kiel |
100% |
103.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
18.8% |
| Semi-State | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Reese Kilbarger-Stumpff |
100% |
1.0 |
88.9 |
9.7 |
1.3 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Matt Newell |
100% |
3.9 |
|
6.7 |
18.2 |
26.7 |
18.7 |
11.0 |
6.8 |
4.3 |
2.8 |
1.7 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Clayton Guthrie |
100% |
10.2 |
|
0.0 |
0.2 |
1.7 |
5.3 |
7.8 |
8.8 |
8.9 |
7.8 |
8.2 |
7.1 |
6.9 |
6.3 |
5.1 |
4.6 |
3.9 |
3.5 |
2.9 |
2.4 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
|
100.0% |
| Evan Carr |
100% |
15.5 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
1.6 |
2.6 |
3.4 |
4.8 |
5.1 |
5.1 |
5.3 |
5.9 |
6.2 |
6.3 |
5.7 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
4.8 |
4.6 |
4.2 |
3.5 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
|
100.0% |
| Mateo Mendez |
100% |
17.5 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.3 |
1.0 |
1.6 |
2.2 |
3.0 |
3.6 |
4.2 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.3 |
5.4 |
5.7 |
5.3 |
4.9 |
4.2 |
4.3 |
3.5 |
3.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Will Russell |
100% |
28.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
1.2 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
3.5 |
3.8 |
4.5 |
4.2 |
|
100.0% |
| Will Kiel |
100% |
29.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
2.3 |
2.6 |
3.0 |
3.4 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
4.6 |
|
100.0% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Reese Kilbarger-Stumpff |
100% |
1.0 |
100.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Matt Newell |
100% |
1.5 |
|
96.8 |
3.0 |
0.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Clayton Guthrie |
100% |
2.7 |
|
1.9 |
65.5 |
22.9 |
7.7 |
1.8 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Evan Carr |
100% |
4.0 |
|
0.2 |
13.5 |
35.9 |
30.9 |
14.1 |
4.0 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Mateo Mendez |
100% |
4.5 |
|
0.0 |
6.8 |
24.7 |
36.9 |
21.4 |
7.0 |
2.2 |
0.8 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Will Russell |
100% |
7.1 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.6 |
3.4 |
16.4 |
27.3 |
25.0 |
13.3 |
5.6 |
3.4 |
2.2 |
1.3 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Will Kiel |
100% |
7.2 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.5 |
2.6 |
14.3 |
26.2 |
26.0 |
14.2 |
6.7 |
4.4 |
2.3 |
1.6 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Reese Kilbarger-Stumpff |
1.0 |
100.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Matt Newell |
1.5 |
|
97.4 |
2.5 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Clayton Guthrie |
2.7 |
|
1.6 |
65.9 |
22.7 |
7.6 |
2.0 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Evan Carr |
4.0 |
|
0.1 |
12.9 |
37.1 |
31.0 |
14.5 |
3.8 |
0.6 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Mateo Mendez |
4.5 |
|
0.0 |
7.2 |
24.0 |
37.6 |
22.5 |
6.6 |
1.7 |
0.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Will Russell |
6.9 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.6 |
3.1 |
17.8 |
31.2 |
31.7 |
15.4 |
0.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Will Kiel |
7.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.5 |
3.2 |
14.4 |
30.7 |
33.8 |
17.2 |
0.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
